Interesting article but wrong in some aspects. You present Xpeng, Zeekr and Xiaomi as all in on BEVs as they have been, but they all are launching PHEV/EREVs. BYD had a hard time selling PHEVs in China this year, but see booming sales in Europe and is launching more models the next few months. China still sells 45% ICE cars, so there will still be a few more years to push the rest out. I agree that BEVs will grow as the tech get better and cheaper, but we are not there yet as of a complete replacement in most markets.
yeah for sure sales wouldn't stop overnight. I do think we are at an interesting inflection point. With the next gen of PHEV gets bigger batteries, it now approaches the inflection point where the additional complexity may not be worth the tradeoff, from both user experience and company's profitability. Looking forward, having a gas generator may not be the sales booster that we have accustomed to seeing in the past few years.
Yes the technical inflection point of costs is interesting as you describe it and hopefully getting closer.
But one big question is usability and that is not only dependenton the tech in the car. If people in many parts of China aren't ready to switch to BEV it could be a question of belif of how convenient it is to charge. People who don't have easy access to cheap charging will have a longer step to go to PHEV and BEV, as the battery is of little use, independent of size, if you can't charge it! :)
Sales of specific cars as PHEVs in Europe is also dependent on different regulations, tariffs and so on. So technology costs is one of many aspects that influence the actual sales of different types of cars.
Interesting article but wrong in some aspects. You present Xpeng, Zeekr and Xiaomi as all in on BEVs as they have been, but they all are launching PHEV/EREVs. BYD had a hard time selling PHEVs in China this year, but see booming sales in Europe and is launching more models the next few months. China still sells 45% ICE cars, so there will still be a few more years to push the rest out. I agree that BEVs will grow as the tech get better and cheaper, but we are not there yet as of a complete replacement in most markets.
yeah for sure sales wouldn't stop overnight. I do think we are at an interesting inflection point. With the next gen of PHEV gets bigger batteries, it now approaches the inflection point where the additional complexity may not be worth the tradeoff, from both user experience and company's profitability. Looking forward, having a gas generator may not be the sales booster that we have accustomed to seeing in the past few years.
Yes the technical inflection point of costs is interesting as you describe it and hopefully getting closer.
But one big question is usability and that is not only dependenton the tech in the car. If people in many parts of China aren't ready to switch to BEV it could be a question of belif of how convenient it is to charge. People who don't have easy access to cheap charging will have a longer step to go to PHEV and BEV, as the battery is of little use, independent of size, if you can't charge it! :)
Sales of specific cars as PHEVs in Europe is also dependent on different regulations, tariffs and so on. So technology costs is one of many aspects that influence the actual sales of different types of cars.